Export PE prices out of the US began to re-emerge in major markets in early October, although not necessarily in large volumes or at very high prices. Although most of the upstream and PE mills have resumed operations after the major hurricane season ended at the end of Q2, market participants have barely seen PE quotes in the global spot market. until recently.
Now, as US goods have begun to find their way back into some markets after a long absence, the question is: will they be game changers in the PE markets before year-end. now on?
What has changed in the US PE market?
Demand has been waning in the country while an improvement in supply has begun to affect prices. This has pushed US suppliers to focus more on export destinations, where profit margins are quite favorable due to multi-year high prices and freight rates from the US. reasonable. PE markets in Europe, Asia, Turkey, and the Middle East have faced a bullish run due to the energy crisis and persistent supply shortages.
It’s certainly not the start of a downtrend, but…
US quotes are not widely available and not very competitive at this time, as they are roughly equivalent to popular Middle Eastern commodity quotes. While market participants think these sporadic quotes are unlikely to trigger a downtrend because of a variety of other bullish factors, they also take into account the possibility of pressure from US PE on the markets. at the end of the fourth quarter.
US LDPE in China US
LDPE was heard at US$1,650/ton CFR China in the post-holiday period, although this price level has not been widely confirmed by the market on posting time. This figure is compared with the current Middle East LDPE quote of $1,620-1650/ton domestically.
China is grappling with a severe energy crisis, which has not only caused domestic supply to shrink, but has also boosted the futures market. The price of imported LDPE film has increased by about $120-150/ton from the last working week before the Golden Week holiday, which took place on October 1-7, and has reached its highest level since August 2014. , according to ChemOrbis Price Tool. The price of HDPE film has also increased by 40-50 USD/ton this week.
US LDPE, LLDPE and HDPE Quotations Across Southeast Asia
So far this week, Southeast Asian market participants have also confirmed US PE quotes in Vietnam and Malaysia.
In Vietnam, the US LLDPE film appeared at a price of 1340-1360 USD/ton CIF, 10-20 USD/ton lower than the popular high price segment of Saudi goods. HDPE b/m in the US is priced at 1230 USD/ton in the same manner, while the quote for Saudi Arabia is 1200-1250 USD/ton. A manufacturer in Vietnam said that they want to keep a “wait and see” attitude for the time being because of the existing inventory.
In Malaysia, US LDPE was confirmed at USD 1210/ton CIF, corresponding to the high price segment of the whole import market.
US LDPE, LLDPE Quotes in Turkey
Turkish market participants have also updated their US LDPE and LLDPE quotes since last week, albeit in limited quantities. “These shipments may even arrive earlier than Middle Eastern goods,” said one PE consumer offered with an October shipment.
Similar to reports in Southeast Asia, most of these prices correspond to October prices for the Middle East. Accordingly, US prices of LDPE and LLDPE were at USD 1740-1760/ton and USD 1550-1570/ton CIF respectively, with no transactions at the time of posting.
A trader said: “The reasonable shipping costs from the US to Turkey have driven new prices from the country as freight rates fluctuate around $60/ton. However, we see US goods as risky as some shipments arrive between December and January. Furthermore, they offer low margins.”
US LLDPE offered for sale in Europe Last
week, US LLDPE C4 film was offered for sale with an increase of EUR 70/ton from September, at EUR 1520/ton (USD 1756/ton) Italy DDP, delivery in November, which corresponds to the low-priced segment of the spot market.
Market participants are wondering if US PE will show up more often in Europe later in the year, given the fact that the region is delivering one of the highest returns worldwide. . According to ChemOrbis Price Index, LDPE prices in Europe are at record highs.
Rising electricity costs as well as a shortage of imported goods are giving sellers an advantage, while buyers find requests for price increases negotiable due to already inflated capital prices.
